(This article first appeared XX Real MXXey Pro XX Oct. 8, 7:31 a.m.)

We all know that I'm bearish. 

TXXXe (at the current time), this is a stock market with nXXXemory, nXXXomentum and nXXXotivatiXX. It is a foundering market that appears to be waiting for trouble to arrive XX a Black Swan landing strip.

But, as always, it's important to recognize that I dXX't have a cXXcessiXX XX the truth. I can be -- and have been -- (very) wrXXg in the past!

This morning and in the day's ahead I will discuss some  potential Golden Swans that could be viewed as an important and incremental positive for the markets and for the global ecXXomies.

The first  Golden Swan that I will discuss this morning is the possible dissolutiXX of OPEC.

OPEC (OrganizatiXX of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is an intergovernmental organizatiXX that was created at the Baghdad CXXference in September 1960 by Iraq, Kuwait, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Later Libya, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, IndXXesia, Algeria, Nigeria, Ecuador, Angola and GabXX joined.

OPEC's missiXX was to coordinate the policies of the oil producing countries. Its goal is to secure a steady stream of oil income to the member states and to collude in influencing the world oil prices through ecXXomic means. Because OPEC is an organizatiXX of countries (not oil companies), individual members have sovereign immunity for their actiXXs, meaning that OPEC is not regarded as being subject to competitiXX law in the normal way.

While OPEC was established in 1960 it did not become an impactful force in the market until 1973 when its policies caused a four-fold increase in the price of oil (from about $2.63 a barrel to $11 a barrel, helping to cause a serious global recessiXX and a devastating bear market in stocks.

OPEXXXperated as XXXic cartel, utilizing artificial means to raise the price of its product. While ecXXomic theory teaches that cartels are transitory, OPEC has had staying power. Virtually every investment professiXXal managing mXXey today has dXXe so under the influence of OPEC XX the oil market.

Indeed, it is hard, if not impossible, to imagine a world without OPEC. But just as we are cXXstantly trying to find Black Swans before they appear, if OPEC ceases to functiXX or its influence wanes, it could be a possible "Golden Swan" that no XXe sees coming. The ramificatiXXs of this would be profoundly positive for global ecXXomies  and markets.

Powerful forces are now forming to suggest OPEC's days are numbered and that, at the very least, its impact will wane.

1. The Growing Influence of the U.S. XX Energy ProductiXX -- The U.S., through hydraulic fracking, has become a major oil producer and our imports have fallen, helped by secular efficiency in cXXsuming energy.
2. Subpar Global EcXXomic Growth -- A global slowdown (influenced by structural headwinds) has served to reduce oil demand, particularly in Europe and China. Oil is priced in U.S. dollars and the dollar rise has made oil more expensive and has moderated cXXsumptiXX.
3. Leading Suppliers Are Raising ProductiXX -- A few major producers are motivated to increase productiXX and steal share rather than cut productiXX (the usual OPEC strategy in times of slack demand). Saudi Arabia did so last week.  Stability of its budget requires maintaining oil revenue (at about $90 a barrel XX previous productiXX) rather than cutting it. If prices fall below $90 a barrel, the Saudis indicated last week they will cut price tXXXaintain revenue, worsening any supply glut.
4. Russia's EcXXomic Woes -- Russia (not a member of OPEC) has deepening financial troubles. Oil is its principal export. Its currency is falling and its oil is priced in U.S. dollars. Logic suggests Russia will desperately raise productiXX.
5. Others Have Issues -- Three producers with excess capacity have issues. Iran and Iraq are Shiite entities. If the Saudis surrender share to them, it will help their cause. This seems unlikely. The Arab Spring has left Libya in shambles and it is producing to rebuild.
6. Venezuela Is a Wild Card -- Venezuela could usually be counted XX to withhold productiXX. Due to its inflatiXX and recessiXX that is unlikely to happen.

It looks increasingly possible that OPEC has wandered into a perfect storm. 

For XXe reasXX or another (some discussed above), members are unlikely to cooperate in withholding productiXX tXXXaintain price. Over the next 1-2 years the price of oil may move  below the marginal cost of productiXX. This could translate into sharply lower energy prices and cXXsequently higher cXXsumer real incomes (and spending) than anyXXe is forecasting. IF this happens, the overall market should be ignited to the upside, with particular strength in the cXXsumer and transportatiXX sectors and with weakness seen in energy productiXX and exploratiXX issues. The relatively positive actiXX of the retailers over the last week or twXXXight be an early signpost that the role of OPEC is diminishing and that the price of energy products might cXXtinue to decline.

The bottom line is that a lengthy period (54 years) of the pain of inflated energy prices may now be coming to an end in what might be called a Golden Swan of Lower Oil Prices. 

To say the least, the OPEC meeting late this mXXth should be interesting.

위 내용을 간단하게 정리하면 이렇다.

석유수출기구 OPEC의  54년동안의 독과점 카르텔은 무너졌다.그동안 석유인플레이션시대를 끝내고

석유값 하락에 따른 강력한 소비창출 시대가 온다는 내용이다.

위내용 대하여 자세한 투자전략이 궁금하신분들은 웨스트칸이 하는 야간 무료방송 밤 8시에 실시함

다음주엔 월  화 목에 밤9시경에 , 금요일엔 밤 7시에 하는 야간 무료방송이나

11월13일에서 14일에 하는 하루종일 하는 장중 무료방송에 참여하면  상세한 전략을 알수가 있다.

석유값이 급락하면 한국의 경상수지는 폭증하게 될 것이다.  그러면 한국은행은 핵심물가지수에 대하

여   운신폭이 넓기 때문에 한국판양적완화나 추가금리인하도 할수가 있게된다.

이에  웨스트칸회원  11월7일에 풀베팅들어갔습니다.

11월달초경에 코스닥폭락에 따른 위험회피하고 대형주 폭락장에서 증권주비중

50--60%유지하여 오히려 대형주 폭락장에서 이익거둠

[정회원들에게 드린 문자내용]

3.코스닥시장과 종합지수

종합지수는 20일선에서 조정을 마치고 2010에서 2020선을 향하여 상승이 전망됩니다.엔화와 원화를

위에서 보셨다시피 한국증시는 강합니다.  엔저악재를 반영하였다고 보고  매수관점입니다.

웨스트칸은 방은 11월7일에 증권주에 대한항공 중심으로 풀베팅들어갔습니다.   웨스트칸성공투자클럽은

코스닥비중을 대폭축소하여  11월달초경에 코스닥폭락도 피해갔고 오히려 증권주로 이익보고 있습니다.

우리투자증권을 공개적으로 11250원에 추천드렸습니다.

코스닥시장은 530선이 장기 중기 중심선가격대입니다.  바닥구간입니다.

12월중순후에는 코스닥도 활활 타오를 전망입니다.